Tahlequah, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Tahlequah OK
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Tahlequah OK
Issued by: National Weather Service Tulsa, OK |
Updated: 3:50 pm CDT Jul 3, 2025 |
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This Afternoon
 Slight Chance T-storms
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Tonight
 Mostly Clear
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Independence Day
 Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance T-storms
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Friday Night
 Partly Cloudy
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Saturday
 Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance T-storms
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Saturday Night
 Mostly Cloudy
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Sunday
 Chance T-storms
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Sunday Night
 Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance T-storms
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Monday
 Chance T-storms
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Hi 90 °F |
Lo 70 °F |
Hi 88 °F |
Lo 71 °F |
Hi 88 °F |
Lo 71 °F |
Hi 89 °F |
Lo 71 °F |
Hi 90 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
This Afternoon
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A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. South wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Tonight
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Mostly clear, with a low around 70. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm. |
Independence Day
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the morning. |
Friday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Saturday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the morning. |
Saturday Night
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Calm wind. |
Sunday
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph. |
Sunday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Calm wind. |
Monday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph. |
Monday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 71. Calm wind. |
Tuesday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph. |
Tuesday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Calm wind. |
Wednesday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Tahlequah OK.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
577
FXUS64 KTSA 031753
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025
- Low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms through
the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall, downburst winds, and
lightning will be the primary hazards.
- Humid conditions will return by the end of this week with
heat indices reaching 95-100 F across the area by Saturday
and continuing through early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight )
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025
Ongoing showers across eastern Oklahoma were associated with a
weakening 700-mb boundary oriented northwest to southeast from
Creek co to Le Flore co. This activity should continue to weaken
through the afternoon hours as the boundary becomes less defined.
Additional showers/storms were developing across south central
Oklahoma associated with isentropic lift interacting with a
secondary elevated boundary/instability axis. This activity is
expected to expand into southeast Oklahoma through the afternoon
hours. Slower storm motions combined with precipitable water
values in excess of 2 inches will help to create areas of heavy
rainfall with rain rates of 1-2 inches per hour. These conditions
will aid in a continued flash flood threat across portions of
southeast Oklahoma into this evening, especially over locations
that received 1-3 inches of rainfall in Pittsburg co this morning.
Weak flow aloft should continue to limit overall severe
potentials through this evening.
Convection should begin to weaken/lessen in coverage through the
evening hours with any lingering shower potential across far
southeast Oklahoma. At the same time, a developing MCV currently
in southwest Texas is forecast to lift east northeast within the
mean mid layer flow tonight. In response, additional
showers/storms are progged to lift toward the Red River, reaching
southeast Oklahoma late tonight into Friday morning. Again, with
ample amounts of moisture in place, a heavy rain threat with flash
flood potential will be the main hazard tonight/Friday morning.
Ongoing cloud cover and precip will help to keep afternoon temps
from reaching their full potential with highs in the 80s to near
90 deg. Overnight lows tonight should remain in the 70s for most
locations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025
The MCV is forecast to lift into the region Friday with
shower/storm chances spreading from southwest to northeast over
the CWA. The greater storm potential is across southeast Oklahoma
through the morning hours, where a continued heavy rain threat and
flash flood potential exists. This disturbance looks to exit the
CWA during the day Friday ahead of a shortwave moving out into the
Plains Friday afternoon. The southern portion of the associated
trof axis is progged to move into the region Friday night/Saturday
as the shortwave lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Latest
indications are for the lingering trof axis to remain over the
region into Sunday before exiting Sunday night.
With the trof axis over the region and low level moisture vectors
still advecting moisture into the region, shower and storm
chances will remain forecast through the Holiday weekend. The
greater potential looks to be over the northern half of the CWA,
closer to the southern periphery of the trof axis. Through the
Friday afternoon to Sunday night time frame, showers/storms are
not expected to be constant with the greater chances during the
daytime Saturday and Sunday. Precip coverage Friday evening/night
looks to be more isolated before the boundary moves in, and in
response much of the CWA at this time looks to remain dry for
holiday outdoor activities.
Daytime instability is forecast to increase for the weekend while
flow aloft remains marginal. Thus, an isolated severe potential
could develop each afternoon Saturday and Sunday, while a locally
heavy rain threat remains. Temperatures through the Holiday
weekend should remain slightly below to near seasonal average.
Behind the exiting trof axis, a ridge of high pressure builds back
over the Desert Southwest with the CWA on the eastern periphery of
the ridge for the first half of next week. This puts the CWA under
more northwesterly upper level flow, which will allow for a couple
disturbances to drop through the region Monday through Wednesday.
Shower and storm chances remain forecast with each of these
shortwaves. At the same time, temperatures look to warm back to
around the seasonal average for July with ongoing humid conditions
continuing through next week. Heat index values of mid 90s to near
102 deg are forecast each day this weekend and next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025
Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms continues across
eastern Oklahoma just south of the Tulsa area to just north of
McAlester. Terminals in these areas will remain susceptible to
periodic showers and isolated thunderstorms into the afternoon
before rain diminishes. No severe weather is expected, but any
storms could result in brief heavy rain and lightning. In general,
VFR conditions should continue for all terminals.
Sky cover will thin overnight before another storm system
increases clouds and rain chances again Friday morning across
eastern Oklahoma. Confidence in any specific location is low for
now, so just added vicinity showers for now. Winds will remain
light and out of the south through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 71 89 73 89 / 0 20 10 30
FSM 73 92 73 93 / 10 20 10 10
MLC 71 87 71 90 / 20 40 10 20
BVO 68 88 70 89 / 0 20 10 30
FYV 69 88 69 89 / 0 20 10 10
BYV 69 89 70 91 / 0 20 10 10
MKO 70 88 71 89 / 0 20 10 20
MIO 69 89 71 89 / 0 20 10 30
F10 70 86 71 89 / 10 30 10 20
HHW 73 86 71 90 / 30 40 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06
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