Tahlequah, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

984
FXUS64 KTSA 200608
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1208 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2025

 - Higher grassland fire weather conditions develop Saturday
   afternoon behind frontal boundary.

 - Mild conditions continue into the weekend with much above
   normal temperatures likely next week.

 - Gusty southerly winds into Saturday afternoon and again second
   half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2025

Area of low pressure tracks across the Plains Friday night into
Saturday with a frontal boundary dropping southeast toward eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Ahead of the front, greater 3-hr
pressure changes over central Oklahoma are expected to move over
the CWA along with a continued tighter pressure gradient. In
response, breezy to gusty southerly winds continue into Saturday
with the stronger gusts within the higher terrain of southeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas as 35-45Kt low level jet moves
overhead. These conditions will help keep temperatures from
bottoming out with lows early Saturday morning in the upper 30s to
mid 40s.

The frontal boundary is forecast to reach northeast Oklahoma late
morning Saturday and exit southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas early Saturday evening. Ahead of the front, breezy/gusty
southerly winds continue with afternoon temperatures forecast to
warm into the 60s. Low level moisture should remain mainly south
and east of the CWA, which should keep the frontal passage dry.
Behind the frontal passage, a transition to northerly winds
transporting drier air back into the region will aid in limited to
locally elevated fire weather danger Saturday afternoon. Winds
should begin to weaken Saturday evening with surface high pressure
sliding into the region. Low temperatures Saturday night fall into
the 30s and 40s. Along the Kansas border, lows near the freezing
mark are forecast, and these are the only freezing temperatures
forecast over the next 7-day period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2025

Lighter easterly winds are anticipated Sunday while surface high
pressure moves through the region before exiting Sunday night. In
the wake of the departing surface high, return flow quickly
transports moisture back into the region with latest model
solutions indicating low level clouds streaming north/northeast
over the CWA Sunday night into Monday. How quickly these clouds
can exit will help determine high temps Monday. For now, trends
highlight the western half of the CWA seeing sun and temperatures
in the mid 60s, while clouds hold on over the eastern half of the
CWA.

Monday night into Tuesday, there are hints that a speed
max/compact impulse could quickly move west to east through the
region. Increasing moisture...precipitable water values up around
1 inch...interacting with this feature could create scattered
areas of drizzle early Tuesday morning over portions of the CWA.
For now will continue with potential for drizzle/sprinkles over
far southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. This feature looks
to exit by Tuesday afternoon with more scattered cloud cover.

For the second half of next week, southerly flow is progged to
become gusty again while an expansive ridge of high pressure sets
up over the southern Plains. High temperatures respond by climbing
well above seasonal average with high temperatures in the 70s.
This could create near to record highs Christmas Day. The next
best chance for rain showers could potentially come next weekend
depending on the model of choice. Either way, no significant rain
is currently forecast through the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with sct-bkn high
clouds. South winds will remain gusty through most of the night
with strong LLWS, before a weak cold front moves southward
through the area Saturday with a shift to lighter west, then north
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  63  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   39  67  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   46  69  41  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   39  61  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  64  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   42  61  35  52 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   43  65  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   38  60  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
F10   45  67  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   43  69  48  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...14